Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 219.161070 267.806202 328.586874 411.591573 524.394228 6.760539e+02 9.021236e+02
2025-05-25 158.964966 211.909637 286.579021 404.127561 593.868616 9.072618e+02 1.513016e+03
2025-06-01 125.012360 176.436874 255.132444 392.231010 644.511584 1.138474e+03 2.352485e+03
2025-06-08 103.149101 151.732030 230.708571 379.468551 683.896846 1.374864e+03 3.515426e+03
2025-06-15 95.413485 146.659258 235.587640 418.430112 842.560719 2.003354e+03 7.013122e+03
2025-06-22 84.852568 134.456472 224.585707 422.102258 926.261928 2.535236e+03 1.203228e+04
2025-06-29 77.756034 126.812283 219.966216 437.373229 1049.671506 3.364113e+03 2.378646e+04
2025-07-06 70.137062 116.852430 208.541599 433.125366 1117.247007 4.104424e+03 4.370080e+04
2025-07-13 67.652445 116.062303 215.542455 476.594797 1370.146724 6.291459e+03 1.582993e+05
2025-07-20 64.920184 114.284640 219.971650 515.447193 1647.268783 9.635306e+03 1.006696e+06
2025-07-27 61.817721 111.240558 220.859835 545.002638 1923.118363 1.448179e+04 3.640338e+07
2025-08-03 58.373017 106.962243 217.953679 562.218280 2168.033138 2.100746e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 54.441965 101.345759 211.296338 567.258527 2377.297583 2.996469e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 50.259190 94.672377 200.838741 556.037957 2490.161064 3.957727e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 46.320542 88.083547 189.498430 538.027549 2547.891828 5.011351e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 42.810612 82.074656 178.726354 518.761669 2582.807299 6.250903e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 42.374255 83.067609 187.064953 577.866091 3335.186030 1.672747e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 40.214483 79.739135 182.729251 583.477186 3657.631462 3.063659e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 38.746121 77.899377 182.370088 606.882183 4235.550274 8.272060e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 36.622348 74.229946 175.990180 600.360108 4480.157425 1.743526e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 36.392613 75.225898 183.944431 667.518090 5937.784570 6.868619e+07 NaN
2025-10-12 35.893203 75.477572 189.687468 728.300915 7696.447400 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 35.075878 74.808562 192.353062 775.000066 9586.937003 NaN NaN